THOUGHTS ON CONFIDENCE, Part One

AS I PREPARE FOR MY TRIP TO BHUTAN

Speculations about confidence are everywhere in the news. Do we have confidence that Obama and his team can resolve the economic crisis? Will investor confidence rebound? And what about consumer confidence? Does each of us have confidence in our ability to survive the downturn? Will banks have the confidence to resume extending credit to businesses? Will businesses have confidence to plan for the future?

Confidence dwells in that shadowy place between fact and opinion. If we know something is true, we don’t need to have confidence it is. It’s a fact. On the other hand, mere opinion lacks the sturdiness and stamina of true confidence. Optimism is all too fragile. And yet, as our current economic and political situation constantly reminds us, confidence is essential to our recovery. So what is confidence? And how does it come about?

These are the questions that preoccupy me as I prepare for my three week vacation in the remote Buddhist kingdom of Bhutan. My plan is to post a series of reflections on these topics, starting now but continuing on my return. In the meantime, any questions or observations on the topic are very welcome. It would be great to have a lively dialogue on this topic.

But let me begin now with a few thoughts on self-confidence to get the ball rolling.