Category: Society

Just When We Need Clarity and Humor

Today’s Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump is suing the writer of a book about him for “defamation.” (See story) The alleged crime was reporting his net worth was between $150 million and $250 million.

At various times, Trump has publicly proclaimed that his wealth ranges from 3 to 6 billion, and in his deposition made over a year ago, he claimed that the 4 billion figure did not include his “brand value.”  The deposition, according to the Journal, goes on to say, “My net worth fluctuates, and it goes up and down with markets and with attitudes and with feelings, even my own feeling.”

What refreshing candor!  I think we could all say the same, though we might be too embarrassed to say it if we knew we’d be quoted on the front page of the Wall Street Journal.  But such fluctuating feelings — and estimated values — clearly lie behind many if not most of our economic decisions.  If so many of us had not felt exactly the same way, we would not be facing foreclosures or defaults now. And the economy would be in better shape.

And yet there is no doubt that what he says is true.  Our perceptions do fluctuate with our feelings.  The difference is that for Trump, apparently,  his feelings dictate the truth.

And Rising Risk

The WSJ’s “Heard on the Street” today notes again the skewing of the data on economic recovery. Opportunities for investment are rising, but many indicators suggest we are still sinking deeper into a recession. (See article)

A dramatic slump in rail traffic points to sluggish industrial activity. Many commodities, including electricity, are decreasing in output as well as profitability. And while analysts are predicting a rebound in earnings, that looks to be at the expense of capital investments, wages and benefits. The article concludes that “spending power is leaching out of the economy,” while investors eager not to miss out on the rebound “pump money into riskier asset class.”

As if to reinforce the point, the Journal’s front page headline proclaims: “From Stocks to Junk, It All Sells Well Now.”

In short the evidence is mounting for a psychological bubble of optimism, a bubble that will drive a wedge between the few who may be able to make some short term speculative gains and those still looking to survive the recession – and set the stage for another bust.

What we don’t know we know here is how much we are allowing ourselves to be manipulated into believing that the worst is over.  It is all there in the difference between the front page and the back page.

SOMEONE IN CHARGE — AT LAST

The stock prices rose dramatically yesterday of the banks that got negative marks in the government’s newly released stress tests.  Indeed, most stock prices went up. (See Wall Street Journal) Why?

Some say that the news is not as bad as initially feared, while others say that the numbers suggest that another big government bailout does not seem required. Financial reporters are notorious for making glib interpretations of market behavior — but why should that stop me from trying to detect unconscious factors at play.  Something odd is going on here.

I suspect that the relief now stems from the sense that someone is in charge.  The passing out of grades suggest that the teacher has come back into the room.  The authorities in charge seem to know what’s what — and what to do about it.  They are acting that way, and they are being perceived that way.

This is a weak sign of confidence — but it doesn’t take many of signs of confidence to affect the market when everyone wants to believe in an imminent recovery.

We Actually Can Protect Ourselves

The virus is spreading but not nearly as rapidly or as widely as the fear it arouses. As Elisabeth Rosenthal writes in Sunday’s Times, there is a simple, cheap and effective defense against it:  “Wash Your Hands.” (see article)

Basing her experience as a doctor but also a mother who was in Beijing with her children during the SARS epidemic, she points out that frequent hand washing is an effective means of protection against all forms of infection: “No one got SARS,” she reported.  “But more than that, the stomach bugs and common colds that are the bane of elementary schools all over the world disappeared as well.”

So why is the fear so great?  No doubt the media, relentlessly searching for news to engage readers, has inflamed public concern.  Reporters and editors may claim that they are simply reporting what is happening, but no news sells as well as bad news, and fear is a reliable way to attract attention.

But the underlying reason is that we have all come to feel dependent and vulnerable in the modern world.  Epidemics – like hurricanes, earthquakes, fires, and other natural disasters – sweep through our ordered world, wreaking havoc, and we have become dependent on government to protect and rescue us.  That is as it should be, since we cannot individually protect ourselves from catastrophes on such a scale.

But we have also lost a lot of trust in the organizations we do usually turn to.  Are they telling us the truth, or just what they want us to believe?  Does our government really care about our welfare?  Perhaps the drug companies see an opportunity to reap profits from extra sales of Tamiflu, or other medications.  At the more paranoid end of the scale are such thoughts as, perhaps, the government helped bring the epidemic about with lax safeguards, or is actually trying to obscure the existence of weapons of mass biological destruction.

We are dependent on our public agencies, to the extent, often, that we have lost  the knack of doing what we can to protect ourselves.  We tend to think that if our organizations cannot or will not protect us,  then we must resort to drastic measures.  We must flee or withdraw from life, while we start to consider who is to blame for our misfortune.  As Dr. Rosenthal reminds us, we easily forget what we can do ourselves.

This is the story behind the story.  Yes, Swine Flu is a worry, and we should know what we can about how it is spread and how to treat it.  But perhaps we need to worry also about our worry.  At least, we can try to think about the fears so easily aroused, what we don’t know we know about our ever-present vulnerabilities and suspicions.

Is There a Line to be Crossed?

We seem to be at an interesting point in our history where same sex marriage – once virtually unthinkable – is becoming not only widely accepted but a legal fact. Iowa and New Hampshire have just legitimized it, and other states seem to be on the same path.

Obviously there are arguments on both sides: gays claim that denying them the right to marriage is a form of discrimination; traditionalists argue that marriage has always been between a man and a woman. Can one reconcile these arguments? Is there a middle course? Can a line to be drawn that is not at one pole or the other?

I don’t think so. People do argue, of course, and occasionally an argument will change someone’s mind. But the change we are going through now amounts to a vast, unpredictable and uncontrollable cultural change of heart, a tectonic shift in social attitudes, and many factors have contributed to that. It is not a matter of logic, and it is not grounded in law. It is a matter of what people don’t know they have come to know about themselves and others over the past several years, irreversible because it is grounded in unconscious knowledge and thought.

Over recent years, a thousand invisible threads have been snapped: gay children have come out to their families, TV shows and movies illustrating gay lives have become popular, gay politicians have been elected to office. Slowly, steadily, the categories that organize our minds have been changed. Communities have risen in protest against hate crimes, gay communities have stood up to demonstrate their political and economic muscle, knee-jerk prejudices have been challenged, hundreds of marches have been held, thousands of anti-discrimination suits have been filed and won. Activist groups on college campuses provoked debates and discussions, magazines and ads routinely came to show gay couples leading ordinary lives, famous athletes came out, gay couples moved in next door, planting gardens and raising real estate values, gays volunteered in soup kitchens and cleaned up parks. In a 2004 ABC/Washington Post poll of Americans, just 32 percent favored gay marriage, with 62 percent opposed. In a poll done this week, 49 percent support gay marriage versus 46 percent opposed.

Potter Stewart, the Supreme Court justice, is famous for having observed that hardcore pornography is hard to define: “but I know it when I see it.” It announces its presence viscerally – and that is the same with many other issues that arouse strong emotions and underlie fixed opinions. In this case, the opposite is happening: visceral reactions are being calmed, revelations no longer shock, and surprises are smoothed out. Slowly, inexorably same sex marriage has come to seem normal.

And once it is normal it takes its place as an unremarkable part of life – and, eventually, there will no longer be polls on the subject.

Comment:

I want to thank Anthony Brown for correcting my facts:  Vermont and Iowa have approved gay marriage, and it remains to be seen if the New Hampshire Senate’s action will be signed by the governor.  I also appreciate his endorsement of my analysis.